Rumors abound of Musharraf's imminent departure

Islamabad and indeed all of Pakistan is abuzz with rumors of Musharraf's imminent departure from the country on a "safe passage" deal with the PPP government. There have been late-night clandestine meetings, the commander of the crack 111 brigade - which provides security to Musharraf - has been changed, and maybe most importantly Nawaz is loudly claiming that he and Zardari have come to an agreement to push Musharraf out.

Wonder where he will end up? I know that the most obvious - and long-standing - guess is Turkey, but my money is on the United States.

Musharraf on his way out?

Things have gotten very interesting since the election on Feb. 18th. The good news is that some sane parties won, namely the PPP, PML-N, and ANP. The bad news is that these said parties are trying their best to forget about the judiciary and the lawyers' movement that put them in power in the first place. Of course they're political parties, and they will grasp for power above all else. But what is especially frustrating is that in this case, doing the right thing also means extending their hold on power - and saying a big fat 'fuck you' to Musharraf at the same time.

In March 2007, I had predicted that Musharraf would be gone within a year. Well, we're coming up on March 9, the anniversary of the Chief Justice's sacking, and it might not happen that soon, but Musharraf doesn't have much longer to stay in the Army House that he's been squatting in and thereby refusing to let Kayani occupy it. Word is that he's already trying to make deals for a 'safe exit.' What should happen is that the bastard gets tried for treason and humanitarian crimes. Let's see. The next couple of weeks will be very interesting.

Dude, leave already

Note: This is snark, not an actual letter

Musharraf takes off his uniform

Finally, the day has come. Musharraf has taken off his uniform. This long-standing, slightly-obscene-sounding demand of both the opposition in Pakistan as well as Western allies, is finally being met. And now that we are in the moment, it's actually become very clear to me just how apt the "take off the uniform" metaphor is - because it's a completely superficial step. Musharraf may have "taken off his uniform, but he's still as firmly in charge as ever. Perhaps even more so, since the devastation that his latest martial law has caused has really put the nail in the coffin that is Pakistan.

Musharraf is just misunderstood

In another interview, Musharraf has claimed that he considered quitting. He claims that he changed his mind after he realized that he was the only person who could lead Pakistan to democracy.

Well, that sounds about right to me. A military dictator does sound like the perfect person to democratize a country, especially since he was the one to un-democratize it in the first place. And his life in the military has trained him well to deal with complex political and economic decision-making, and he's ideally equipped to develop institutions that can accommodate varied and conflicting demands from myriad social groups to produce a coherent national policy.

And of course, who best to decide on Musharraf's suitability to remain in power? Why, Musharraf himself, of course. Who else could be as unbiased and neutral as him? It's a good thing Musharraf was around so that Musharraf could present this complex dilemma to him - and we're all so relieved that Musharraf advised Musharraf to stay on. After all, how else will we ever get to democracy?

How Musharraf thinks

Musharraf has tried to go on the public relations offensive in the last few days, giving interviews to a number of international media outlets to try and salvage whatever is left of his image in the West (he shouldn't have bothered).

In interviews given to various news organizations, Musharraf delivered some real gems. Here is a sampling:

• "I am disappointed and let down by the media." [Poor guy - why won't the media just let him be? Why does it insist on asking him tough questions and making fun of him?]
• "Mentally and in my heart I am not a dictator. I have never run the army in a dictatorial manner wherever I've commanded." [That's right, militaries are always extremely democratic organizations and have absolutely no hierarchy in them whatsoever.]
• "Have I done anything constitutionally illegal? Yes, I did it on 3 November. But did I do it before? Not once." [Oh, except for that coup back in 1999. I guess that wasn't exactly constitutional.]

Musharraf denies counter-coup

Courtesy of Geo News:

Musharraf denies rumours of house arrest
ISLAMABAD: Pakistani President PervezMusharraf denied rumours sweeping Pakistan on Monday that he had been placed under house arrest by subordinates unhappy with his decision to impose emergency rule.

"It is a joke of the highest order," Musharraf told foreign news agency from the Presidency building in Islamabad where he had just met more than 80 foreign diplomats to explain his decision.

"It's nonsense, sheer baseless rumour," Musharraf's spokesman Rashid Qureshi said.

"It's a complete hoax, totally baseless and malicious. People will treat it with the total contempt it deserves," said deputy information minister Tariq Azeem.

"The president has just administered an oath to the federal sharia (Islamic law) judge and before that he briefed foreign diplomats on the situation," Azeem added.

Blogging from Karachi

I'm in Karachi for a few months and had planned to set up a new blog, but haven't got around to doing it and figured I'd just report here about what's been happening in Pakistan in the last 24 hours. Musharraf has imposed martial law. He's calling it an emergency but it's martial law. The constitution has been suspended, major opposition figures are under arrest, elections have been called off, censorship laws have been put in place, and the judiciary is being gutted and replaced with compliant judges.

In his address last night, Mush said he had taken this act because he couldn't bear to see Pakistan commit suicide. Well, actually, it's Musharraf's actions that are suicidal, both at a personal and national level. He has most likely put Pakistan on the path to disintegration and chaos. He has definitely sealed his own fate and I expect he will be gone within 6 months (whether violently or not, I can't say).

This moment is akin to 1970, just before civil war broke out. The situation was different then in that it was a majority of the country that was being oppressed. But the similarity is that we have the military yet again using brute force and oppression as the key to solving political problems. With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that using even more force against then-East Pakistan was absolutely counter-productive and served only to hasten the pace of Bangladeshi independence. We can see today that sending in even more U.S. troops into Iraq is absolutely counter-productive and will never secure peace. Then why can't the idiots at GHQ see that what they have just signed on to is absolutely suicidal? Of course, I know why. It's because they are, above all else, power-hungry and desperate, and if things don't go exactly according to their plans, well then, it's time to get serious and impose martial law. Musharraf is like a petulant 5-year old boy who isn't winning the game so he takes his ball away and goes home. But in this case, he's set himself up for a fatal end.