U.S. likely to continue support to Musharraf

Even though the U.S. has indefinitely canceled a round of defence cooperation talks due to the coup, I think it's likely that it will continue to support Musharraf, at least in terms of military aid (which is controlled by the Pentagon, not the State Department). And statements from various officials suggest that other than token punitive measures, the U.S. is not going to use its aid as leverage against Musharraf.

So I think what we need, in addition to continued protests at embassies worldwide, is a special push from Pakistanis in the U.S. to pressure the U.S. government to make aid to Pakistan contingent on free and fair elections in January as scheduled (the government has "postponed" them for a year, after imposition of martial law). I'm not sure how this campaign will work but it's something to start thinking about.

Musharraf denies counter-coup

Courtesy of Geo News:

Musharraf denies rumours of house arrest
ISLAMABAD: Pakistani President PervezMusharraf denied rumours sweeping Pakistan on Monday that he had been placed under house arrest by subordinates unhappy with his decision to impose emergency rule.

"It is a joke of the highest order," Musharraf told foreign news agency from the Presidency building in Islamabad where he had just met more than 80 foreign diplomats to explain his decision.

"It's nonsense, sheer baseless rumour," Musharraf's spokesman Rashid Qureshi said.

"It's a complete hoax, totally baseless and malicious. People will treat it with the total contempt it deserves," said deputy information minister Tariq Azeem.

"The president has just administered an oath to the federal sharia (Islamic law) judge and before that he briefed foreign diplomats on the situation," Azeem added.

Protest in NYC at Pakistani consulate

Worldwide protests are being planned at Pakistani embassies, consulates, high commissions. Please try and attend one if you can. Below are the details for the protest in New York City:

There is a protest being organized in New York City. The details of the event are as follows:

Date: Monday, November 5, 2007
Time: 2:00pm - 4:00pm
Location: Pakistani embassy, New York
Street: 12 East, 65th Street New York NY- 10021
City/Town: New York, NY

http://columbia.facebook.com/event.php?eid=19602181032

Please spread the word around.

Thank you.
Ayesha Ahsan Malik

Geo TV Online

Watch Geo TV online.

[Geo TV and ARYOne, both news channels, uplink from Dubai, and have been able to continue their transmissions. The blackout has occurred through cable operators who have been directed to block all news channels. News channels are broadcasting "normally" but no one's watching! There are reports that some cable operators have defied these orders, e.g., in Lyari. Some channels have feeds available online, and of course those that broadcast internationally, such as Geo and ARYOne, can be seen by everyone outside Pakistan.]

Aitzaz Ahsan interview

Aitzaz Ahsan, prominent lawyer, PPP leader, recently-elected president of the Supreme Court Bar Association, and main advocate against Musharraf in the current Supreme Court case, was among the first people arrested by the regime on Saturday. Amazingly, he was able to give an interview to a news channel from custody.

The original story was this. Ahsan was taken into custody in Islamabad and stripped of his belongings including his mobile phone. At some point, he was allowed to go to the bathroom. As he walked towards the bathroom, one of the policemen allegedly stepped forward to shake his hand and in doing so slipped him a mobile phone. When Ahsan got to the bathroom, he wasted no time and called ARYOne, a news channel. However, it seems that Ahsan wasn't in the bathroom at all. Most likely, in the early confusion of the coup, the police didn't know what exactly to do with him, and so let him make some phone calls.

Below is the interview, broadcast but not aired in Pakistan (due to the news blackout):

Details of HRCP arrests in Lahore

A meeting of activists at the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan's head office in Lahore was raided and mass arrests were made on Sunday. Details courtesy of Beena Sarwar:

Rangers in Lahore arrested some 70 human rights activists, including lawyers, artists,
women's rights activists, and educaters. As of Monday afternoon, most of them are still in detention.

The police surrounded the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) office at around 1 pm on Sunday and broke into the hall an hour later, disrupting a peaceful meeting of civil rights activists gathered to discuss the emergency in Pakistan.

The arrests were apparently made under Sections 3 & 16 of the MPO 1960 (maintenance of public order) although the meeting was being held indoors at a private venue and posed no threat to public order. Police had no written orders and are claiming the right to detain
those arrested for up to 30 (or 90) days without charge.

The families of the detainees haven't been allowed to meet them, although they were able to send in essential items like medicine and water. They are holding a candlelight vigil outside the police lock up in Model Town (Block A).

Bail cannot be posted for any of them and according to some reports they may be transferred to Mianwali jail today (Monday).

However, prominent journalist & Director HRCP I.A. Rehman and HRCP Secretary General, lawyer Iqbal Haider have been transferred to HRCP Chairperson Asma Jahangir's house (which has been declared a sub jail where Asma herself is under house arrest; see her arrest order here). Former finance minister and HRCP Council member Dr Mubashir Hasan, who is over 80, was allowed to go to his own house on the basis of his health (I guess you have to be 80 to be shown some mercy by this government).

Those arrested include: eminent journalist & editor of HRCP's Jehd-e-Haq newsletter Hussain Naqi, economist Shahid Hafeez Kardar, director of HRCP's vulnerable prisoners' project Brig (rted) Rao Abid Hameed, artists Salima Hashmi & Lala Rukh, educationist Samina Rehman,
prominent columnist Imtiaz Alam, secretary general South Asia Free Media Association (SAFMA), lawyer Bilal Minto, economist Ali Cheema, sociologist Rubina Saigol, Azra Shad, Khalid Mehmood, HRCP lawyer Mehboob Khan, and barrister Salman Raja.

Imran Khan picked up by agencies?

There is intense speculation about the whereabouts of Imran Khan. One rumor has him crossing the Wagah border into India early Monday morning. Another said that Imran Khan was going to surrender of his own accord sometime on Monday. According to his party's Chief Political Secretary however, he has been abducted by the intelligence agencies. Courtesy of an email received by a friend:

This is a message from the Chief Political Secretary of PTI Saifullah Khan Niazi. Imran Khan did not escape house arrest in Lahore as has been reported in electronic media, we are unsure of his whereabouts, and he has likely been kidnapped by the agencies:

“The Chairman Imran Khan was told by the police last night that he is under house arrest. But around 3 am the police brought warrants to take him to prison and at that time it was discovered that he had mysteriously vanished while there were over two dozen policemen surrounding his house. We are not sure where they have taken him as there is no way he could have gone out without the knowledge of the police and he could be in a lot of danger.

Please do note that none of the MMA, MQM, or PPP leaders have been arrested. Aitzaz Ahsan, a leader of the PPP, has been arrested but on the basis of his being president of the Supreme Court Bar Association, not his affiliation with the PPP. Meanwhile, Benazir remains in Karachi but is expected to go to Islamabad tomorrow.

Crackdown on protests

There's been a massive crackdown on protests today. Protests have been led by lawyers. In Karachi, there was an intense protest starting at 9:40 a.m. during which lawyers shut down the city courts, and the Karachi Bar Association president was arrested. Later in the day, in Karachi and Hyderabad, 200+ lawyers were lathi-charged and arrested. Lawyers are continuing their occupation of the courts.

The Sindh Chief Justice Sabihuddin Ahmed refused to take a fresh oath on Saturday. In his place, Justice Soomro was appointed. Local lawyers then sent around text messages saying "Sabihuddin is our chief justice." Justice Sabihuddin attempted to go to work as chief justice today, and has subsequently been placed under house arrest (his son, a lawyer, has also been arrested in the protests).

Protests occurred in the Lahore courts as well. Details aren't available yet but here's a pic:


A protest has been called at 4 p.m. today (Monday) at the Karachi Press Club. Massive show of military force and mass arrests are expected.

Despite this show of force, Musharraf hasn't been able to consolidate his latest coup. According to some reports, more than 50% of judges have refused to take a fresh oath under the new Provisional Constitutional Order (the one declaring martial law). So the tussle between Musharraf and the judiciary appears to be going in favor of the judges. The tv channels also remain off air, which suggests to me that Musharraf hasn't been able to fill the judiciary and bring the media under control. (A meeting with media owners is planned for tomorrow.)

Under these circumstances, I think it's likely that there will be a counter-coup. After all, the military isn't monolithic. There is a fundoo faction that is sympathetic to the Taliban and their ilk, and are unhappy with the War on Terror. But there is another faction as well which consists of the "professionals" - those who believe in the professionalism of the army and signed up to be soldiers, not politicians. This faction is the one that the U.S. has always depended on (it's the group Musharraf comes from as well), and this group is extremely unhappy with this latest imposition of martial law.

There are in fact rumors from Islamabad of a counter-coup. Stay tuned.

Sunday update

The most exciting news of the day is that Imran Khan has somehow managed to escape house arrest. It's not clear where he is but if he managed to get away even for a bit, that gives me so much joy! (I just hope he doesn't go and join Osama now.)

The most depressing news of the day is that there were mass arrests today, about 500 or so. The most high-profile ones were done during a raid on the HRCP office in Lahore, with the arrests of I.A. Rehman, Salima Hashmi, etc. There was also a raid on the Aaj TV office and equipment was damaged and removed, as was done at the FM103 station (this station provides hourly Urdu BBC News updates). There are rumors circulating that the internet is going to be cut off any minute now.

As expected, elections have been postponed but it's not clear until when. Shaukat Aziz said they could be delayed upto a year.

A meeting was called today at the Karachi Press Club, attended by about 100-150 people. Several people spoke movingly. Mention of lawyers and judges got HUGE applause. It's been decided to have a protest tomorrow(Monday) outside Karachi Press Club at 4 p.m., in support of the lawyers' strike nationwide. Below is a pic of the meeting.


I'm not sure how big the street actions are going to be. I see two problems. One, people are genuinely afraid, with good reason, of the army. No one supports this martial law at all (not even conservatives, corporate types, etc.). But the fear of being beaten up is very real now because Mush is pissed off and he's ready for a fight. Two, I think the really big numbers aren't going to come out unless the political parties (and by that I mean the PPP) get involved and mobilize their people. It is significant that Benazir announced today that she is going ahead with the Pindi rally on November 9.

In Karachi, army presence seems to be light, although we did see police and Rangers standing outside the Press Club:


I think we need a BIG push from the Pakistanis in the West. That would make a huge impact at this point. In Mush's speech, he made a big show of speaking to the expats directly. He needs their support, and he doesn't need the bad press. So please, if you're outside Pakistan, plan regular protests at Pakistani embassies, consulates, high commissions. There was a protest in NYC on Sunday, and there is one planned for Monday in London. You can see details here.

One more thing. PLEASE don't call this an "emergency." This is martial law, and it needs to be called martial law. The rhetoric of "emergency" allows Musharraf to make this seem as if this is a minor step that is being done for the good of the country or some genuine short-term crisis, when of course it's being done to keep him in power. By the way, one of the funny moments in his speech/tantrum last night was when he was criticizing the media. He noted that when he came in 1999, there was only PTV, and that he had brought so many new channels since then. The irony of course is that for the last one and half days, we are back to PTV only!

Blogging from Karachi

I'm in Karachi for a few months and had planned to set up a new blog, but haven't got around to doing it and figured I'd just report here about what's been happening in Pakistan in the last 24 hours. Musharraf has imposed martial law. He's calling it an emergency but it's martial law. The constitution has been suspended, major opposition figures are under arrest, elections have been called off, censorship laws have been put in place, and the judiciary is being gutted and replaced with compliant judges.

In his address last night, Mush said he had taken this act because he couldn't bear to see Pakistan commit suicide. Well, actually, it's Musharraf's actions that are suicidal, both at a personal and national level. He has most likely put Pakistan on the path to disintegration and chaos. He has definitely sealed his own fate and I expect he will be gone within 6 months (whether violently or not, I can't say).

This moment is akin to 1970, just before civil war broke out. The situation was different then in that it was a majority of the country that was being oppressed. But the similarity is that we have the military yet again using brute force and oppression as the key to solving political problems. With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that using even more force against then-East Pakistan was absolutely counter-productive and served only to hasten the pace of Bangladeshi independence. We can see today that sending in even more U.S. troops into Iraq is absolutely counter-productive and will never secure peace. Then why can't the idiots at GHQ see that what they have just signed on to is absolutely suicidal? Of course, I know why. It's because they are, above all else, power-hungry and desperate, and if things don't go exactly according to their plans, well then, it's time to get serious and impose martial law. Musharraf is like a petulant 5-year old boy who isn't winning the game so he takes his ball away and goes home. But in this case, he's set himself up for a fatal end.