Monday, November 05, 2007

Crackdown on protests

There's been a massive crackdown on protests today. Protests have been led by lawyers. In Karachi, there was an intense protest starting at 9:40 a.m. during which lawyers shut down the city courts, and the Karachi Bar Association president was arrested. Later in the day, in Karachi and Hyderabad, 200+ lawyers were lathi-charged and arrested. Lawyers are continuing their occupation of the courts.

The Sindh Chief Justice Sabihuddin Ahmed refused to take a fresh oath on Saturday. In his place, Justice Soomro was appointed. Local lawyers then sent around text messages saying "Sabihuddin is our chief justice." Justice Sabihuddin attempted to go to work as chief justice today, and has subsequently been placed under house arrest (his son, a lawyer, has also been arrested in the protests).

Protests occurred in the Lahore courts as well. Details aren't available yet but here's a pic:


A protest has been called at 4 p.m. today (Monday) at the Karachi Press Club. Massive show of military force and mass arrests are expected.

Despite this show of force, Musharraf hasn't been able to consolidate his latest coup. According to some reports, more than 50% of judges have refused to take a fresh oath under the new Provisional Constitutional Order (the one declaring martial law). So the tussle between Musharraf and the judiciary appears to be going in favor of the judges. The tv channels also remain off air, which suggests to me that Musharraf hasn't been able to fill the judiciary and bring the media under control. (A meeting with media owners is planned for tomorrow.)

Under these circumstances, I think it's likely that there will be a counter-coup. After all, the military isn't monolithic. There is a fundoo faction that is sympathetic to the Taliban and their ilk, and are unhappy with the War on Terror. But there is another faction as well which consists of the "professionals" - those who believe in the professionalism of the army and signed up to be soldiers, not politicians. This faction is the one that the U.S. has always depended on (it's the group Musharraf comes from as well), and this group is extremely unhappy with this latest imposition of martial law.

There are in fact rumors from Islamabad of a counter-coup. Stay tuned.

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