A little-noticed development occurred in Swat last Thursday, just as the assemblies were expiring and speculation swirled that Musharraf was taking his uniform off that day. It was quietly announced that the Pakistan Army was taking official control of the war in Swat. You see, until now, it was actually an auxiliary army wing that was leading the fight: the Frontier Constabulary (FC). This is the descendant of a British creation that was to keep the restive population of NWFP and Afghanistan under control. It was a separate entity from the Indian Army, and generally had less training but also less restraints placed on it. The FC also relied heavily on arming locals so they could police themselves.
Today's FC is a weak and underfunded agency. It has historically been given very little training and resources, because the philosophy of the Pakistani government has been to keep these regions autonomous in exchange for some nominal accession to the Pakistani state. Thus, the FC didn't really have much of a job, since the tribal areas were mostly self-governing and didn't really pose a military threat. Of course things are different now, due to the Afghan war of the 1980s, the CIA training and infusions of cash and drugs, and the emergence of militant Islam a la Osama coincident with the rise of Wahabism. So now, FATA is a big big problem. And who does Musharraf send in to deal with it? The good old FC, woefully unprepared to tackle the military threat.
All this while, then, the FC has been used as cannon fodder, sent in to be killed and maimed and taken hostage, while the real army does nothing. And all the while, the militants grow stronger, innocent villagers get pushed out of their homes because of the fighting, more and more of FATA becomes lost to fundamentalism, and Musharraf can turn to the U.S. and use the situation as a way of remaining in power (that is, projecting himself as the only thing that stands between NYC and a crazy fundamentalist Swati).
Of course, military action in Swat is not the path to a lasting resolution of the conflict - just as military action is not the answer in Iraq or Kashmir or anywhere else. But martial law makes the possibility of meaningful engagement even more remote.
Today's FC is a weak and underfunded agency. It has historically been given very little training and resources, because the philosophy of the Pakistani government has been to keep these regions autonomous in exchange for some nominal accession to the Pakistani state. Thus, the FC didn't really have much of a job, since the tribal areas were mostly self-governing and didn't really pose a military threat. Of course things are different now, due to the Afghan war of the 1980s, the CIA training and infusions of cash and drugs, and the emergence of militant Islam a la Osama coincident with the rise of Wahabism. So now, FATA is a big big problem. And who does Musharraf send in to deal with it? The good old FC, woefully unprepared to tackle the military threat.
All this while, then, the FC has been used as cannon fodder, sent in to be killed and maimed and taken hostage, while the real army does nothing. And all the while, the militants grow stronger, innocent villagers get pushed out of their homes because of the fighting, more and more of FATA becomes lost to fundamentalism, and Musharraf can turn to the U.S. and use the situation as a way of remaining in power (that is, projecting himself as the only thing that stands between NYC and a crazy fundamentalist Swati).
Of course, military action in Swat is not the path to a lasting resolution of the conflict - just as military action is not the answer in Iraq or Kashmir or anywhere else. But martial law makes the possibility of meaningful engagement even more remote.
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