To boycott or not to boycott?

The latest debate raging within political circles is whether or not to boycott the upcoming sham elections on January 8. Here is how I feel about the whole election exercise:

To those who argue for participating in the sham election, this is what I have to say: enough is enough. This is the least we can do, to not give legitimacy to this dictator and to fake elections engineered by the army, to produce an outcome that is desirable for the army, the general Pakistani establishment, and last but not least the USA.

Boycotting the Jan. 8 election is more than past due. We should have boycotted the 2002 elections, which were also engineered to produce a parliament that has helped enable every one of Musharraf's moves, as well as establish the bogeyman of fundamentalism, originally constructed to scare Westerners and Pakistani liberals but now real entities to themselves. Any new parliament emerging from Jan. 8 will be an even bigger joke. We can expect nothing from such a parliament, and we should demand nothing less than a real election in which there is meaningful choice and true debate. Nothing less.

Terrorism to be finished by December 16

Good news, folks. Terrorism will be vanquished, erased, defeated, eliminated, and stamped out in Pakistan by December 16. That's because that is the day that General... er, I mean Mister... Musharraf has vowed to end the "emergency" by. And of course the great rationale for imposing "emergency" was to combat terrorism. So we can deduce that the fight against terrorism will be over by December 16. Only about two more weeks. Cool.

Now, there are those who might cynically think that Musharraf's timing has more to do with his sham of an election on January 8. See, the thing is that December 15 is the last date for candidates to withdraw their nomination papers from the Fake Election Commission. So by ending martial law a day later, he's keeping the parties guessing, and even if they did want to boycott any elections held under martial law, they won't be able to do so anymore since they will be officially on the ballot by then. Psyche! Who's the clever one now?!? Wow, Mush, no one can see through this one. You've fooled everyone.

Musharraf takes off his uniform

Finally, the day has come. Musharraf has taken off his uniform. This long-standing, slightly-obscene-sounding demand of both the opposition in Pakistan as well as Western allies, is finally being met. And now that we are in the moment, it's actually become very clear to me just how apt the "take off the uniform" metaphor is - because it's a completely superficial step. Musharraf may have "taken off his uniform, but he's still as firmly in charge as ever. Perhaps even more so, since the devastation that his latest martial law has caused has really put the nail in the coffin that is Pakistan.

"Peace Initiative" Event in Karachi tonight

There was a "peace initiative" event in Karachi tonight, which was meant to be a protest of martial law (with a focus on the media ban). What it turned into is an entirely different matter. Will blog about that soon. But it was a very interesting experience, and I'm very glad I went.

Ali Saleem to marry in reality show

Nawaz Sharif is back in Pakistan (along with Shahbaz and Kulsoom). His plane has landed at Lahore airport, and his supporters are eagerly waiting for him to emerge from inside. His return, brokered by the Saudis and the Americans, doesn't have the same frenzy that Benazir's return did, but many people are excited. Meanwhile, the sham of the election - an election to be held during martial law - continues. The period for filing nomination papers has begun, and the parties are agonizing over whether to boycott the election or not. Actually, they're not agonizing as much as tripping over each other to file papers. Yes, the boycott has failed. The sham of the election will gain legitimacy because of the greedy and selfish politicians, and Nawaz's return only furthers this legitimacy.

But today, this is not what troubles me most. I am upset about something else altogether: a new reality show entitled Kon Teri Dulhaniya. The premise of the show is to find a bride for none other than Ali Saleem aka Begum Nawazish. The ads for the show say: "Intelligent, Educated, Famous and Rich - Any girl will choose him, who will he pick?" The show would make more sense if he was the bride. This desperate and cheap attempt at publicity on Ali Saleem's part is very sad, but it speaks volumes about how Pakistani society is so anxious to get him married off. After all, what better way to kill Begum Nawazish than to condemn her to marriage??!

Crackdown on Karachi journalists

The crackdown on Karachi journalists on Tuesday was awful:

Police brutality at Karachi Press Club on Nov. 20, 2007

Of course the police were as incompetent as they were brutal. It seems that the police were rather clueless about what to do with the many people they had arrested (more than 200). They had no room at any of the thanas and apparently drove around the city checking at various thanas for space! One of the cops even lost his way.

Musharraf and Bush, two peas in a pod

The similarities between the political strategies of Musharraf and Bush are striking. Below is a humorous take on the resemblance:

Many activists still in jail

The government released thousands of prisoners with much fanfare over the last two days, but the fact is that many activists still remain in jail. These include Farid Awan (trade union leader), Aitzaz Ahsan (president of the Supreme Court Bar Association), Nisar Shah (Labour Party of Pakistan), Liaqat Shah, Ayub Qureishi, Yousuf Mastikhan (National Worker's Party), and Hasil Bizenjo (National Party).

These activists remain locked up and many are charged with sedition, punishable by death. We must demand the release of all political prisoners, including these remaining listed here.

Imran Khan freed from jail

Imran Khan has just been released from jail. His hunger strike is still apparently on, and he has also announced a plan to return to Punjab University, from where he was earlier arrested.

Geo TV may be available on satellite

There's a rumor that GeoTV may be available on satellite on an "unscheduled" frequency. Unfortunately I have no way of verifying this personally but perhaps some of you could give it a try:

Frequency 4154
SR 4410
Polarity H
FEC 3/4

New code of conduct for media

We've all heard about the new and controversial code of conduct for the electronic media, which all broadcasters have to agree to if they are to continue to operate. This new code of conduct is actually an amendment to the existing PEMRA Ordinance of 2002. The amendments call for severe new restrictions on the freedom of speech. Some of the more egregious stipulations of the new code of conduct are that broadcasters:

(j) not broadcast video footage of suicide bombers, terrorists, bodies of victims of terrorism, statements and pronouncements of militants and extremist elements and any other act which may, in any way, promote, aid or abet terrorists activities or terrorism;

(k) ensure that no anchor person, moderator or host propagates any opinion or acts in any manner prejudicial to the ideology of Pakistan or sovereignty, integrity or security of Pakistan.

(l) not broadcast any programme inciting violence or hatred or any action prejudicial to maintenance of law and order;

(m) not broadcast anything which defames or brings into ridicule the Head of State, or members of the armed forces, or executive, legislative or judicial organs of the state;

(n) not broadcast any programme or discussion on a matter which is sub-judice; and

(o) not broadcast anything which is known to be false or baseless or is malafide or for which there exist sufficient reasons to believe that the same may be false, baseless or malafide.

The penalty for violating these stipulations are up to three years in jail and Rs. 10 million in fines. Note that the ordinance also allows for penalties for cable providers, for up to one year in jail and Rs. 1 million in fines.

This new code of conduct effectively eliminates freedom of speech, because it prohibits any speech that is at all critical of the government (defined in its broadest sense, including of course the military as well).

Legal fund to assist lawyers and judges

A fund has been set up to assist those lawyers and judges who have been arrested and/or find themselves in dire straits due to their non-compliance with the PCO. Details:

"Legal Relief"
Account number 0606-7900027203 at
Habib Bank Limited
High Court Branch, Karachi

Intimidation of students

We've all been lamenting that, compared to Lahore and even Islamabad, students in Karachi seem to be very quiescent. It's true that there are many reasons for their inaction (including middle class apathy and even support for the military, the control of MQM and JI of student activity, and the lack of politicization of Karachiites). But one major reason is that the university administrations in Karachi are very hostile to student protests.

IBA students were told unequivocally that protest activity (including wearing black armbands) will be met with immediate expulsion, no questions asked. Now Bahria University has taken it a step further. From a LUMS blog:

A piece of paper titled FLASH, literally threatening students involved in demonstrations and political activities was pasted to walls and passed through the corridors of Bahria University. It stated that those involved would be subject to strict disciplinary actions including but not limited to expulsion, cancellation of degrees as well as legal action. These ‘punishments’ would be for all those wearing black bands and protesting on as well as outside campus. The administration made an even more obvious show of their insecurity as they closed the university on Monday, the day on which a protest organized by Bahria and Air University students was scheduled.

Under these circumstances, trying to mobilize the student body is extremely difficult.

BREAKING: Mass arrests at rally for Geo/ARYOne

As many as 180 people have just been arrested at a Karachi rally at the Karachi Press Club organized by a journalists' union on behalf of Geo and ARYOne.

Update: All journalists were released by late Tuesday night. The crackdown was apparently triggered by the plan of the journalists to march to Governor House, which of course the authorities will never tolerate. (And I have fantasies of protesting outside military bases!)

3400 prisoners freed, 2000 remain

According to Dawn, the Interior Ministry has freed 3400 political prisoners who had been arrested since martial law. This leaves approximately 2000 which the Ministry claims will be released soon as well. That will mean that only a handful will remain under arrest - those who have been formally charged with crimes such as sedition and treason. According to the Ministry, these people must apply for bail through the courts (those sad subverted things).

I suspect that this is the result of US pressure on Musharraf. If it is true, hopefully it will mean that the movement will gain some more oxygen and momentum, with the release of hundreds of activists, lawyers, and party workers.

Speaking of US pressure, last night I was stuck in a massive traffic jam in the Clifton area. I learned later that it was due to the visit of the US ambassador to see Benazir Bhutto (Bilawal House, Benazir's residence, is in Clifton). Under any other circumstances, it would be odd that the US ambassador is in Karachi to see Benazir, an opposition politician who has no official standing. But as some friends of mine keep saying, This Is Pakistan.

Anne and Benazir, sitting in a tree...

Imran Khan on hunger strike

Imran Khan has begun a hunger strike for the restoration of the judiciary and the constitution. He's being held in the Dera Ghazi Khan jail (in NWFP), and has been charged with treason and terrorism, offenses which carry the death penalty.

Imran may be the last principled person in Pakistan. I may not agree with everything he believes, but I have to give him credit for that.

Shift in US strategy in FATA

The New York Times is reporting that the U.S. is planning a new strategy for FATA, which would mean greater and more direct U.S. involvement. This includes $350 million in military aid for the Frontier Corps, the main military unit fighting in FATA (the Frontier Corps is slowly absorbing the Frontier Constabulary, blogged about earlier). It also involves many more U.S. troops stationed in Pakistan.

I see this as a frightening new development, and a repeat of the Afghan war strategy of the 1980s with perhaps similarly devastating results. The difference will be that this time, the main backlash will affect Pakistan instead of the West.

Supreme Court stooges clear way for Musharraf

The Supreme Court has now officially cleared the way for Musharraf to continue as president for another 5 years. It gave its ruling on 5 of the 6 petitions that were challenging his election. The last petition, filed by Fakhdoom Amin Fahim of the PPP, will be heard on Thursday. We all remain in great suspense as to what that last ruling will be.

Musharraf is just misunderstood

In another interview, Musharraf has claimed that he considered quitting. He claims that he changed his mind after he realized that he was the only person who could lead Pakistan to democracy.

Well, that sounds about right to me. A military dictator does sound like the perfect person to democratize a country, especially since he was the one to un-democratize it in the first place. And his life in the military has trained him well to deal with complex political and economic decision-making, and he's ideally equipped to develop institutions that can accommodate varied and conflicting demands from myriad social groups to produce a coherent national policy.

And of course, who best to decide on Musharraf's suitability to remain in power? Why, Musharraf himself, of course. Who else could be as unbiased and neutral as him? It's a good thing Musharraf was around so that Musharraf could present this complex dilemma to him - and we're all so relieved that Musharraf advised Musharraf to stay on. After all, how else will we ever get to democracy?

How Musharraf thinks

Musharraf has tried to go on the public relations offensive in the last few days, giving interviews to a number of international media outlets to try and salvage whatever is left of his image in the West (he shouldn't have bothered).

In interviews given to various news organizations, Musharraf delivered some real gems. Here is a sampling:

• "I am disappointed and let down by the media." [Poor guy - why won't the media just let him be? Why does it insist on asking him tough questions and making fun of him?]
• "Mentally and in my heart I am not a dictator. I have never run the army in a dictatorial manner wherever I've commanded." [That's right, militaries are always extremely democratic organizations and have absolutely no hierarchy in them whatsoever.]
• "Have I done anything constitutionally illegal? Yes, I did it on 3 November. But did I do it before? Not once." [Oh, except for that coup back in 1999. I guess that wasn't exactly constitutional.]

Pakistan Army takes charge of the war in Swat

A little-noticed development occurred in Swat last Thursday, just as the assemblies were expiring and speculation swirled that Musharraf was taking his uniform off that day. It was quietly announced that the Pakistan Army was taking official control of the war in Swat. You see, until now, it was actually an auxiliary army wing that was leading the fight: the Frontier Constabulary (FC). This is the descendant of a British creation that was to keep the restive population of NWFP and Afghanistan under control. It was a separate entity from the Indian Army, and generally had less training but also less restraints placed on it. The FC also relied heavily on arming locals so they could police themselves.

Today's FC is a weak and underfunded agency. It has historically been given very little training and resources, because the philosophy of the Pakistani government has been to keep these regions autonomous in exchange for some nominal accession to the Pakistani state. Thus, the FC didn't really have much of a job, since the tribal areas were mostly self-governing and didn't really pose a military threat. Of course things are different now, due to the Afghan war of the 1980s, the CIA training and infusions of cash and drugs, and the emergence of militant Islam a la Osama coincident with the rise of Wahabism. So now, FATA is a big big problem. And who does Musharraf send in to deal with it? The good old FC, woefully unprepared to tackle the military threat.

All this while, then, the FC has been used as cannon fodder, sent in to be killed and maimed and taken hostage, while the real army does nothing. And all the while, the militants grow stronger, innocent villagers get pushed out of their homes because of the fighting, more and more of FATA becomes lost to fundamentalism, and Musharraf can turn to the U.S. and use the situation as a way of remaining in power (that is, projecting himself as the only thing that stands between NYC and a crazy fundamentalist Swati).

Of course, military action in Swat is not the path to a lasting resolution of the conflict - just as military action is not the answer in Iraq or Kashmir or anywhere else. But martial law makes the possibility of meaningful engagement even more remote.

Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa leaves Pakistan out of fear

Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa has reportedly left Pakistan today due to fear for her own safety. Dr. Siddiqa is the author of a brilliant book entitled Military, Inc., which is about the Pakistani military's expanding commercial and financial empire (it is, according to her, the largest business enterprise in the country). Her book has been threatened with a ban many times, and she and her family have been threatened and harassed by the military.

Geo and ARYOne bite the dust

The saving grace for GeoTV and ARYOne was that they were based in Dubai. They uplink from there, so that even though they were unable to broadcast in Pakistan, they could still be seen all over the world.

However, Musharraf has been able to apply enough pressure on the UAE government to actually kick GeoTV and ARYOne off the airwaves in Dubai! This is truly demoralizing, and a huge setback for the two networks. There is at least one protest planned today in Karachi in solidarity with these two journalistic outlets. This is also a setback for Dubai, I think, because the city-state's philosophy has always been live and let live, and to focus on business. This is a signal that the rulers there are willing to play politics, which is generally unsettling to business types. So it's a pretty dumb move on multiples counts.

Update

I haven't updated for a couple of days due to internet access problems. Here's a quick update that gives you a sense of how surreal Pakistan is these days:

-Assemblies completed their term on Thursday, Nov. 15 and were dissolved at midnight. On Friday, a caretaker PM, Soomro, took oath in which he pledged to uphold the constitution. Of course Pakistan does not have a constitution right now, thanks to the man who administered the oath, Gen. Musharraf (he was wearing a sherwani, by the way, not a uniform).

-An financial analysis of parliamentarians found that Shaukat Aziz, the former PM, holds 93% of his assets in the U.S. and the U.K.

-John Negroponte, U.S. diplomat, arrived in Pakistan today to have talks with various actors to try to salvage the deal that the U.S. had hoped to put in place. This is the same Negroponte who oversaw the massacre and torture of thousands of people in Honduras and Nicaragua during the 1980s. Most recently, he served as the U.S. ambassador to Iraq. So he should fit right in in Islamabad.

-On Thursday, the chief of the army staff, Pervez Musharraf, gave the authority to lift "emergency" to the president, Pervez Musharraf. I know it sounds like they're the same person, but there's an easy way to tell the two people apart. The chief of the army staff has a General before his name. Also, he wears an army uniform. If he's in a sherwani or a suit and tie, it's the president you're dealing with. See, it's easy. By the way, this bizzaro-world transfer of authority is actually a very sly act on Musharraf's part because it means that he keeps his current powers even after he leaves his military post.

Musharraf to quit army by end of November

Musharraf has announced that he will quit his army post by the end of November. This is big news in a way but also quite predictable, given the pressure the US is putting on him. The question now is whether the protest movement can sustain momentum and continue working towards a genuinely progressive society. One of the concerns among activists has been that if we restrict our demands to ending of martial law/emergency, the government might actually meet the condition and then we'd be adrift. So when this happens, I think we have to be mindful to keep our eyes on the bigger prize.

Imran Khan arrested

Imran Khan has been arrested, as he appeared at a student protest in Lahore (at Punjab University). Sky News, which had been allowed back on briefly, has now been taken off the air because it broadcast an interview with Imran just before he was arrested.

I think this will give the student movement a lot of energy. They love Imran.

Update: The drama behind Imran's arrest is truly revolting. It was the Jamaati students of Punjab University who first captured Imran and kept him in custody on campus (and beat him and his associates up), and then turned him over on a platter to the police. What is more ironic is that just last night I was listening to a radio show (on VOA) in which Imran Khan and Qazi Hussain Ahmed were the guests, and Imran was agreeing quite wholeheartedly with Mr. Jamaat-i-Islami. If nothing else, perhaps this will cure Imran of his mullahism.

Jesus loves you... in Pakistan

This car was parked in front of me at a restaurant.

A surreal moment, especially since I've been "trained" to react to such phrases with suspicion in the U.S. But here, in Karachi, I didn't quite know what to make of it...

Lawyers' movement leaders arrested

Lawyers Akhter Hussain and Abdul Hafeez Lakho have been arrested for 90 days and detained in Karachi Central Jail. This is most significant because the two are former presidents of the Sindh High Court Bar Association and have been managing the lawyers' movement after the current president, Abrar Hassan, was arrested.

Ridiculous media blackout continues

The ridiculous media blackout continues. Channels can only come back on the air if they agree to sign and abide by the "new rules" that PEMRA has put forth - what journalists are describing as a "PCO for the media."

The absurdity of the situation is that these channels can be seen outside Pakistan, so that often news is being relayed by overseas Pakistanis to their relatives INSIDE Pakistan. By one estimate, more than 500 million text messages have been exchanged internationally in one week (making the mobile phone companies very rich).

Many of the Pakistani channels can be seen in India as well, so that Indians are more informed about events in Pakistan - and they are seeing news about Pakistan from a Pakistani point of view (for the first time). And the current cricket series between India and Pakistan is being broadcast on Geo Super - except that we can't watch Geo Super so no one in Pakistan is being able to watch the matches!

The channels are losing something like Rs. 10 million per day, which leads me to wonder just how long they will be able to hold out against the regime. But they have been admirable thus far.

Benazir under house arrest

Benazir is officially under house arrest for seven days. As far as I know, none of this is helping to rehabilitate her image among intellectual circles.

Benazir's long march not so long?

Benazir is due to start her "long march" tomorrow from Lahore to Islamabad. This is frankly a bold move, because she's taking the fight to Musharraf, in the heart of Punjab. And she has also announced that she wants not only martial law to be lifted, but also insists on the complete restoration of the judiciary, as well as all curbs on media to be lifted. It almost sounds like she is a genuine activist! Of course we know that's not true. This is just a case of Benazir playing catch-up with the genuine democrats of Pakistan - the lawyers, judges, and other activists who have been making sacrifices with their lives for the cause.

Meanwhile the Punjab government has announced late tonight that it will arrest Benazir and detain her for a week if she attempts to go on her long march tomorrow, which means the march may not be very long at all. It also announced that she should put off her long march because intelligence had been received that a suicide bomber has entered Lahore in order to target Benazir. Man, those intelligence people are so very good. One has to admire how, time after time, they are able to ascertain exactly when suicide bombers are going to attack. If only they could find a way to muster resources to actually catch these guys before they carried out their attacks. But what can they do - it's not as if they work for the military or anything.

KHI students finally waking up?

It looks like Karachi students might finally be waking up from their political slumber. Students at Karachi University and IBA have attempted to organize protests. Meanwhile, the enlightened administration at IBA has decreed that - forget protests - even wearing black armbands will lead to immediate expulsion from the institution.

Geo network sues government

The Geo network (comprising of Geo TV, Geo News, Geo Super, and Aag) has sued the government for prohibiting it from broadcasting its channels. The government has disallowed all of Geo's channels from being broadcast, despite the fact that only one of them, Geo News, is the "problematic" one. The government has also targeted the Jang group of newspapers (owned by the same family - by the way, yes, it is disturbing that one family/group owns so much of the media). In a preliminary ruling, the Sindh High Court (composed of the new PCO crony judges) has directed PEMRA to allow the non-news channels to be allowed on the air. A final ruling is expected at the end of the week.

"Emergency" to continue despite January elections

Musharraf has announced that martial law will continue even though elections will be held in January. He doesn't seem to think that there is anything strange about having elections while basic constitutional rights and freedoms are suspended, while civilians can be court-martialed due to an amendment of the Army Act of 1952 (trials of civilians in military courts, without legal representation and without the right to appeal), and while the media remains muzzled. Poor guy. He just can't understand what all the fuss is about, when all he wants to do is to continue ruling Pakistan in order to save it. Because, you know, he's been doing such a great job for the last eight years.

PPP workers arrested in Sindh

Approximately 2000 PPP workers have been arrested across Sindh, in connection with protests held across the province today. PPP workers were protesting the house arrest of Benazir as well as the mass arrests of PPP workers in Punjab on Thursday and Friday.

Meanwhile, Benazir continues the enjoy the good life. A New York Times article notes today that on Friday, Benazir moved seamlessly from playing the martyr in her attempt to hold the public rally in Pindi, to an upscale and glamorous evening dinner with diplomats at Parliament House in Islamabad. It's nice to know that her social life isn't being affected by all this yucky protesting stuff.

Elections to be held on time, apparently

Musharraf is apparently now agreeing to elections on the original date, i.e., mid-January. This is obviously the result of pressure from the West, especially the US. They are extremely frustrated that, having agreed to the previous farce of "transition to democracy" under which elections would be held and Benazir would be essentially anointed prime minister, they have been betrayed and Musharraf has reneged on the deal. My guess is that the West hopes that the same setup can still be installed - Musharraf as "civilian" president and Benazir as PM providing the veneer of popular legitimacy to the whole sick farce. Of course, things have changed since the entire setup was arranged, and I'm not sure all will go as the West wants. Meanwhile, of course, the "war on terror" becomes less and less likely to succeed. And the civil wars that are raging in Pakistan won't go away, Benazir or not.

Interestingly, Mush's latest announcement goes against his earlier defense of delayed elections. Ostensibly, elections had been delayed because the various assembly sessions were ending on different dates, and the Supreme Court too had been "dragging its feet" in giving a decision. Now that Mush is planning for January elections, the earlier problems have mysteriously gone away.

"Pakistan TV fights back"

The Associated Press has a story on how Pakistani TV channels have fought back against the crackdown, by continuing to go after the stories and finding new ways to broadcast (through internet and satellite). See full story here.

The story also notes something that I have been saying for a long time - that the decision of Geo TV and ARYOne to base their operations in Dubai (especially the decision to uplink from Dubai) was a brilliant one. This has allowed these two channels to really be free of government control and as a result they have emerged as the leaders in getting news out during this time. The head of GeoTV notes that a major reason for basing operations in Dubai was out of fear that there might precisely be a time a like now, when there is martial law and a crackdown on the media (this being Pakistan, it's pretty likely something like this will happen every ten years or so). It's ironic that a tightly controlled kingdom like Dubai provides more freedom to the media than does Pakistan.

Indus News back on

Indus News is back on, but none of the other local channels are. It may be that Indus News has offered some kind of guarantee to the government (like, pretending black is white and vice versa). So far, they seem to be playing it safe.

LUMS protest in New York Times

A picture of the beautiful LUMS protest made it to the front page of the New York Times today (at least for now):

The New York Times is asking for more photos, videos, and text from eyewitnesses of protest activity, so PLEASE send along anything you have!

TV media blackout continues

Even though BBC News and CNN are back on, local news channels are not. Apparently there was a 45 minute meeting on the matter in Islamabad yesterday, and media owners were "consulted," but the government was not able to get the "guarantees" that they wanted. So the blackout continues.

This has meant that the news channels are turning increasingly to the internet to broadcast their programming. You can see clips of all the major channels on YouTube and other online forums, and on JumpTV. The blackout has also caused the sale of satellite dishes to jump dramatically (since the ban is being enforced through cable operators). Interestingly, Dawn has posted detailed satellite viewing instructions on its home page:

Satellite: Intelsat 10, Band -C
Downlink Frequency: 4126.05 Mhz
Symbol rate: 3255 Kbps
FEC: 3/4
Polarization: Horizontal

Blogs are also emerging as a major source of news, as well as SMS messages. Apparently in the last few days, there have been an astounding number of text messages flying around.

Bhutto under "house arrest"

The PPP rally in Pindi today has been shut down, and Benazir has been placed under virtual house arrest. Police have surrounded her home in Islamabad, and won't let her go to the Pindi rally site (they say that she is free to go anywhere else, however). Several hundred PPP workers have also been arrested since yesterday.

This is now shaping up to be a showdown between BB and Mushy. Of course Benazir is trying to salvage some credibility as a democrat and just as a person with any kind of conviction whatsoever. She also announced that she wants the restoration of the judiciary as it was before martial law, and that all cases including the NRO [National Reconciliation Ordinance, which grants her immunity from all corruption charges] should be decided by the previous Supreme Court.

The PPP also has plans to have a "long march" between Lahore and Islamabad on November 13. Obviously that looks increasingly unlikely now.

Update: Apparently BB has been released, but no word on whether the "long march" will go on. It's also come out now that Benazir met with US ambassador Anne Patterson on Wednesday. BB continues to have the blessing of the US. The question for them now is, can she deliver?

Update 2: Approximately 3500 PPP workers and activists have been arrested in the crackdown since yesterday.

Treason charges against Karachi activists

A number of prominent leaders and activists arrested in the Karachi Press Club demonstration are being charged with treason and sedition, the maximum penalty for which is death. This is a chilling development. Those charged are National Party leaders Mir Hasil Khan Bizenjo, Yusuf Mustikhan, and Ayub Qureshi; trade union leader and president of the People's Movement for Justice Farid Awan; and trade union leader Liaquat Sahi.

Student protests at LUMS

LUMS has emerged as the vanguard in a nascent student movement against martial law. As many as 1500 students have been protesting on campus. Many have arrest warrants issued against them but thankfully the LUMS administration is refusing to turn the students over thus far. See a video report of the protests at CNN.

I think it's only a matter of time before other students join them. Student politics have been dead ever since Zia wiped out the movement in brutal crackdowns across Pakistan. Students have been quiet since then but I don't think it's because they approve of what's going on. Young people are disturbed and angry and they feel hopeless, but I think they just need some direction on how to channel their frustrations with the political situation. And I think the brave students at LUMS are showing the way.

Appeal to lawyers everywhere

An appeal from Asma Jahangir to lawyers everywhere [Asma Jahangir is the chair of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan]:

Appeal for support to lawyers and judges in Pakistan

I am fortunate to be under house arrest while my colleagues are
suffering. The Musharaf government has declared martial law to
settle scores with lawyers and judges. While the terrorists
remain on the loose and continue to occupy more space in Pakistan,
senior lawyers are being tortured. The civil society of Pakistan
urges bar associations all over the world to mobilize public opinion
in favor of the judges and lawyers in Pakistan . A large number of
judges of superior courts are under arrest. Thousands of lawyers
are imprisoned, beaten and tortured.

In particular the cases of Muneer A Malik, Aitzaz Ahsan, Tariq
Mahmood and Ali Ahmed Kurd are serious. Muneer A Malik, the former
President of the Supreme Court Bar Association and leader of the
lawyers’ movement has been shifted to the notorious Attack Fort.
He is being tortured and is under the custody of the military
intelligence. Tariq Mahmood, former President of the Supreme Court
Bar Association, was imprisoned in Adiala jail. No one was allowed
to see him and it is reported that he has been shifted to an unknown
place. Mr. Ali Ahmed Kurd, former Vice Chair of the Pakistan Bar
Council is in the custody of military intelligence and being kept
at an undisclosed place. Mr. Aitzaz Ahsan, President of the Supreme
Court Bar is being kept in Adiayala jail in solitary confinement.

Representatives of bar associations should approach their
governments to pressure the government of Pakistan to release
all lawyers and judges and immediately provide access to Muneer
A Malik, Tariq Mahmood, Ali Ahmed Kurd and Aitzaz Ahsan. The bars
are also urged to hold press conferences in their country and
express their solidarity with the lawyers of Pakistan who are
struggling to establish the rule of law.

NYC lawyers protest in solidarity

Lawyers in NYC protest in solidarity with Pakistani lawyers. See here for the letter written by the NYC Bar Association president.

Protest in Karachi

There was a protest in Karachi yesterday (Wednesday). From DAWN:

KARACHI: Anti-govt demo

KARACHI, Nov 7: Activists of several civil society organisations and student groups from different colleges and universities gathered at an intersection near the Agha's Super Market, Clifton, on Wednesday and staged a demonstration against the imposition of emergency rule and the ongoing crackdown on lawyers, political activists and media people.

According to a statement issued by the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP), Karachi, the demonstrators holding placards and banners, raised slogans against Gen Pervez Musharraf and the imposition of emergency. They were demanding restoration of fundamental rights and release of all those arrested after the emergency was declared.—Staff Reporter

A pic of the protest:


There's coverage of the grassroots protests all over Pakistan in New York Newsday (of all papers) as well. Update: Here's a pic of some of the protesters from the Karachi event.

Elections not before February 15

Musharraf has just announced that elections will definitely not be held before February 15th. This announcement must surely be the result of George Bush's personal phone call today. At least it's better than the year's delay we were informed of earlier. My guess is that he will be forced to schedule elections for sometime in late February or perhaps March (a year from the judicial crisis). So I think my prediction earlier this year, that he won't last more than 12 months, will probably come true. Whether he leaves of his own volition, or is forced out through constitutional means, or a counter-coup of sorts, or some violent means, is anyone's guess.

Imran Khan on the run

Imran Khan is alive and on the run from intelligence agencies. According to a fascinating article from BBC, he jumped a wall as soon as police came to his house, which is why he's one of the few who got away. I don't know how much longer he can manage this, since he's still in the country (apparently in the Lahore area). This is one of the most recognizable faces we're talking about here, so it won't be easy to move around. You can read the rest of the article here.

Perhaps, in addition to "Go Musharraf Go," the new slogan of martial law resistance can be "Run Imran Run"!

BBC News and CNN back on

BBC News and CNN are back on, at least in Karachi.

Update: Both channels are off air again since Friday afternoon.

Benazir going for an Oscar

Benazir has an article in today's New York Times. It says all the right things, of course, and she really sounds like she's a person who believes in democratic principles, but we know it's just an act. If only she'd thought of standing up for democratic principles when she was busy making deals with the same dictator she's lambasting now. Of course she has absolutely no credibility with anyone I have talked to since I've been here, now almost a month. Anyway, you can read the piece and decide for yourself:

Musharraf’s Martial Plan

By BENAZIR BHUTTO

NOV. 3, 2007, will be remembered as the blackest day in the history of Pakistan. Let us be perfectly clear: Pakistan is a military dictatorship. Last Saturday, Gen. Pervez Musharraf removed all pretense of a transition to democracy by conducting what was in effect yet another extraconstitutional coup.

In doing so he endangered the viability of Pakistan as an independent state. He presented the country’s democratic forces with a tough decision — acquiesce to the brutality of the dictatorship or take over the streets and show the world where the people of Pakistan really stand.

General Musharraf also presented the democratic world — and especially the countries of the West — with a question. Will they back up their democratic rhetoric with concrete action, or will they once again back down in the face of his bluff?

In my view, General Musharraf’s ruling party understood that it would be trounced in any free elections and, together with its allies within the intelligence services, contrived to have the Constitution suspended and elections indefinitely postponed. Very conveniently, the assassination attempt against me last month that resulted in the deaths of at least 140 people is being used as the rationale to stop the democratic process by which my party would most likely have swept parliamentary elections. Maybe this explains why the government refuses to allow the F.B.I. and Scotland Yard to assist in a forensic investigation of the bombings.

As I write, demonstrations are taking place across Pakistan. Opposition party members, lawyers, judges, human rights advocates and journalists have been rounded up by the police without charge. The press has been seriously constrained. The chief justice of the Supreme Court and many other judges are believed to be under house arrest.

The United States, Britain and much of the West have always said the right things about democracy in Pakistan and around the world. I recall the words of President Bush in his second inaugural address when he said: “All who live in tyranny and hopelessness can know: the United States will not ignore your oppression, or excuse your oppressors. When you stand for your liberty, we will stand with you.”

The United States alone has given the Musharraf government more than $10 billion in aid since 2001. We do not know exactly where or how this money has been spent, but it is clear that it has not brought about the defeat of the Taliban and Al Qaeda, nor succeeded in capturing Osama bin Laden, nor has it broken the opium trade. It certainly has not succeeded in improving the quality of life of the children and families of Pakistan.

The United States can promote democracy — which is the only way to truly contain extremism and terrorism — by telling General Musharraf that it does not accept martial law, and that it expects him to conduct free, fair, impartial and internationally monitored elections within 60 days under a reconstituted election commission. He should be given that choice: democracy or dictatorship with isolation.

While the world must do its part to confront tyranny, the primary responsibility rests in the hands of the people of Pakistan. It is incumbent on Pakistanis to tell General Musharraf that martial law will not stand. The overwhelming majority of Pakistanis are moderate; it is my hope that they will unite in a coalition of moderation to marginalize both the dictators and the extremists, to restore civilian rule to the presidency and to shut down political madrassas, the Islamic schools that stock weapons and preach violence.

It is dangerous to stand up to a military dictatorship, but more dangerous not to. The moment has come for the Western democracies to show us in their actions, and not just in their rhetoric, which side they are on.

Benazir Bhutto, the prime minister of Pakistan from 1988 to 1990 and from 1993 to 1996, is the leader of the Pakistan People’s Party.

Business channels back on

The business channels, Business Plus and CNBC Pakistan, are both back on the air. It is a surreal experience to watch them though, because while they are fairly openly discussing the effects of "Nov. 3rd" on business, they aren't being able to discuss the actual martial law itself. And of course there is no mention of the protests, the condemnations, the sheer idiocy of the act for business activity.

Another surreal moment occurred when one of the channels did a news roundup at the beginning of the hour, and mentioned a story out of Palestine in which a number of Palestinians had been arrested by the Israeli government. But the channel couldn't cover the close to 3000 people arrested by our own government!

Copycat Georgia

The president of Georgia has declared an emergency. Arey yaar, I know that imitation is the best form of flattery, but really, a nice card would have sufficed. P.S. I hate dictators.

Protests

There have been student protests today at LUMS in Lahore. There appears to be much more protest activity in Punjab generally than in Sindh (and Karachi specifically). See pics of the LUMS protest here.

There are moves to organize more protest activity in Karachi, but the fear is real and its deserved. However, expect to see something soon. I am realizing, however, that there is a huge difference in organizing dissent in the U.S. and in Pakistan. In addition to the usual class and ethnic conflicts that plague all protest movements, there is also the atmosphere of fear and paranoia that can be quite paralyzing. There is also somewhat of a split between the "old" and the "new" activists - the former are used to doing things a certain way, while the latter want to try new strategies and are often more confrontational and radical in their approach. Perhaps it is that the young folks have never faced the danda. I continue to have enormous respect for the activists who have been around and continue to fight the good fight. They are inspiring.

Meanwhile, Benazir announced that she will go ahead with her rally on Friday the 9th in Pindi. This is not quite the call to arms one would have expected the party of Zulfikar to issue but it is something. And already the police have announced that they will stop it. So I think a showdown of sorts is coming.

The news channels remain off the air for a fourth day. The courts in Karachi were deserted as no lawyers showed up. And no news on Imran Khan's whereabouts yet.

Update

A few updates:

• Approximately 60 of the lawyers arrested yesterday in Lahore will be tried in the Anti-Terrorism Courts. This is a deeply chilling indication of the venality of this regime. I suppose it's also a way for Musharraf to pretend that this really is about terrorism (as announced in his speech).
• Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry addressed lawyers and media today by telephone. About four minutes into the speech, the government cut mobile phone service in Islamabad. A spokespeson said that "The government has closed the mobile service in some sectors (of Islamabad) and they have said it was just a temporary measure.” How kind of them.
  
• Benazir has flown to Islamabad where she'll be having discussions with govt. respresentatives (but not Musharraf).
• Karachi was calm today and business is "normal" but that's a sign that the demands of daily life must be met no matter what, not that people are happy with martial law.
• A symbol of protest has emerged which is a black armband. Please wear it wherever you go.
• The "new" fake Supreme Court has set aside the Court's judgment on emergency/martial law. You may recall that the Supreme Court, on Saturday evening, hurriedly put together a judgment on the emergency and declared it illegal and unconstitutional. The petitioner was Aitzaz Ahsan and the Court was scheduled to take up the matter before a full court on Monday. Of course this was not to be. However, the judgment stands for the record, despite what these lackeys have said.
• There's still no word on the whereabouts of Imran Khan.
• News TV channels remain off the air. This is a stunning sign that Musharraf still hasn't been able to consolidate this coup 72 hours into the affair. This, after military rule by the same government for 8 years. He's really in trouble.
  

Pakistan Redefined (cartoon)

Cartoon by MAXIM in today's Nation:

Moody rating changed to negative

Moody changed its credit rating for Pakistan to "negative" from "stable":

Moody's believes that the imposition of emergency rule represents a further erosion in Pakistan's governing capacity and underscores Pakistan's heightened political instability.

President Musharraf's narrowing domestic support base and shakier relations with the U.S. and other key international allies now appear to be a greater threat to investor confidence than was true in the past.

Political turbulence in Pakistan since the beginning of this year had been shrugged off by foreign investors and domestic market participants, who remained confident that the country could muddle through. "However the balance of risks now appears to be shifting to the downside," said the analyst.

"Ghaddar" judges

Borrowing terminology used at protests, here's a list of the "ghaddar" judges who have agreed to take a fresh oath under the new PCO:

Saiyed Saeed Ashhad
M. Javed Buttar
Faqir Muhammad Khokhar
Muhammad Nawaz Abbasi
Qaim Jan Khan
Ejaz-ul-Hassan
Chaudhry Ejaz Yousuf
Moosa K. Leghari

The last four were just brought on board today; if you go to the Supreme Court website, you'll see that their names have been hastily added to the website but a link to their profile doesn't exist yet.

Multan has a sense of humor - who knew?

This made me laugh (from New York Times):

In Multan, another city in the province of Punjab, two new judges who had taken the oath of office under emergency rule Sunday were forced to leave the courtroom by hundreds of angry lawyers.

"We threatened them, saying: ‘You’ve taken an unconstitutional oath, if you don’t go we will throw eggs at you.’ They left,” said a lawyer from Multan, Riaz Gilani.

Elections on or not?

There have been conflicting reports on the upcoming elections. Yesterday it seemed pretty clear that elections were postponed indefinitely. Then Shaukat Aziz said that they could be postponed for up to a year.

The latest statement from both Shaukat Aziz and Attorney General Malik Abdul Qayyum says that elections will be held as scheduled on January 15. The current assemblies will be dissolved on November 15 (as previously scheduled and required under the constitution which no longer governs us). Perhaps having secured a compliant judiciary, Musharraf feels he has finally secured his next presidential term, and Benazir must have agreed to it as well.

Different version of KPC demo

Here's a different version of the Karachi Press Club demo by someone who was there (courtesy of Karachi Metroblog's Bolshevik):

A massive protest had been planned outside the Karachi Press Club today. A *lot* of people showed up. The problem was, however, that a majority of them probably thought that the protest would be a dinner party.

Read the rest here.

Karachi Press Club demo attacked

Police had surrounded the Karachi Press Club since morning, and when the demonstration began after 4 p.m., the police lathi-charged the crowd. Several arrests have been made. No other details available. (Source: Geo News)

Meanwhile, on II Chundrigar Road, two very different manifestations of martial law took place.

-First, the KSE index plunged in its first day of trading after martial law. The index slipped 635 points to close at 13257. This is the biggest drop in the KSE index in the history of the country. It's not just us crazy hippies, the capitalists don't like martial law either.

-Second, the offices of the Jang group were raided and the company was prohibited from printing its evening newspaper Awaam. Rumors are that the edition was to carry pictures and stories of the morning crackdown on lawyers and judges. Update: Snapshot of front page below. It's pretty sad Musharraf's scared of this:


So, we've had, in the history of this 2-day old martial law, attacks on the judiciary, civil society activists, select opposition politicians, and the media. Left out of the cross-hairs of the army are the jehadis and the corrupt erstwhile prime ministers. I thought this martial law was to combat terrorism?

Benazir manages to plumb new depths

In a piece for CNN, Benazir is claiming that the Oct. 18 attack was perpetrated through "a small child":

Although it remains difficult to know for certain, I doubt that a suicide bomber was involved in the attack on me. I suspect, after talking to some of the injured, that the terrorists used a small child as a ploy to get to me. They were trying to hoist the child -- dressed in the colors of my party's flag -- onto my truck.

Failing to do so, they dropped the child near my vehicle. Some witnesses said the child had been rigged as a human bomb. I can't be sure. What followed was a massive explosion, killing scores immediately, tearing many bodies in half and sending blood, gore and flames up into the vehicle.

Rest of her vomit-inducing piece here.

Many reports are emerging that Benazir knew about the impending martial law. They're also claiming that Benazir agreed to the appointment of Dogar as the new Chief Justice of Pakistan since he was a PPP appointee back in 1995. And her refusal to use the wherewithal of her party to challenge martial law suggests that she may be somewhat complicit in all this.

U.S. likely to continue support to Musharraf

Even though the U.S. has indefinitely canceled a round of defence cooperation talks due to the coup, I think it's likely that it will continue to support Musharraf, at least in terms of military aid (which is controlled by the Pentagon, not the State Department). And statements from various officials suggest that other than token punitive measures, the U.S. is not going to use its aid as leverage against Musharraf.

So I think what we need, in addition to continued protests at embassies worldwide, is a special push from Pakistanis in the U.S. to pressure the U.S. government to make aid to Pakistan contingent on free and fair elections in January as scheduled (the government has "postponed" them for a year, after imposition of martial law). I'm not sure how this campaign will work but it's something to start thinking about.

Musharraf denies counter-coup

Courtesy of Geo News:

Musharraf denies rumours of house arrest
ISLAMABAD: Pakistani President PervezMusharraf denied rumours sweeping Pakistan on Monday that he had been placed under house arrest by subordinates unhappy with his decision to impose emergency rule.

"It is a joke of the highest order," Musharraf told foreign news agency from the Presidency building in Islamabad where he had just met more than 80 foreign diplomats to explain his decision.

"It's nonsense, sheer baseless rumour," Musharraf's spokesman Rashid Qureshi said.

"It's a complete hoax, totally baseless and malicious. People will treat it with the total contempt it deserves," said deputy information minister Tariq Azeem.

"The president has just administered an oath to the federal sharia (Islamic law) judge and before that he briefed foreign diplomats on the situation," Azeem added.

Protest in NYC at Pakistani consulate

Worldwide protests are being planned at Pakistani embassies, consulates, high commissions. Please try and attend one if you can. Below are the details for the protest in New York City:

There is a protest being organized in New York City. The details of the event are as follows:

Date: Monday, November 5, 2007
Time: 2:00pm - 4:00pm
Location: Pakistani embassy, New York
Street: 12 East, 65th Street New York NY- 10021
City/Town: New York, NY

http://columbia.facebook.com/event.php?eid=19602181032

Please spread the word around.

Thank you.
Ayesha Ahsan Malik

Geo TV Online

Watch Geo TV online.

[Geo TV and ARYOne, both news channels, uplink from Dubai, and have been able to continue their transmissions. The blackout has occurred through cable operators who have been directed to block all news channels. News channels are broadcasting "normally" but no one's watching! There are reports that some cable operators have defied these orders, e.g., in Lyari. Some channels have feeds available online, and of course those that broadcast internationally, such as Geo and ARYOne, can be seen by everyone outside Pakistan.]

Aitzaz Ahsan interview

Aitzaz Ahsan, prominent lawyer, PPP leader, recently-elected president of the Supreme Court Bar Association, and main advocate against Musharraf in the current Supreme Court case, was among the first people arrested by the regime on Saturday. Amazingly, he was able to give an interview to a news channel from custody.

The original story was this. Ahsan was taken into custody in Islamabad and stripped of his belongings including his mobile phone. At some point, he was allowed to go to the bathroom. As he walked towards the bathroom, one of the policemen allegedly stepped forward to shake his hand and in doing so slipped him a mobile phone. When Ahsan got to the bathroom, he wasted no time and called ARYOne, a news channel. However, it seems that Ahsan wasn't in the bathroom at all. Most likely, in the early confusion of the coup, the police didn't know what exactly to do with him, and so let him make some phone calls.

Below is the interview, broadcast but not aired in Pakistan (due to the news blackout):

Details of HRCP arrests in Lahore

A meeting of activists at the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan's head office in Lahore was raided and mass arrests were made on Sunday. Details courtesy of Beena Sarwar:

Rangers in Lahore arrested some 70 human rights activists, including lawyers, artists,
women's rights activists, and educaters. As of Monday afternoon, most of them are still in detention.

The police surrounded the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) office at around 1 pm on Sunday and broke into the hall an hour later, disrupting a peaceful meeting of civil rights activists gathered to discuss the emergency in Pakistan.

The arrests were apparently made under Sections 3 & 16 of the MPO 1960 (maintenance of public order) although the meeting was being held indoors at a private venue and posed no threat to public order. Police had no written orders and are claiming the right to detain
those arrested for up to 30 (or 90) days without charge.

The families of the detainees haven't been allowed to meet them, although they were able to send in essential items like medicine and water. They are holding a candlelight vigil outside the police lock up in Model Town (Block A).

Bail cannot be posted for any of them and according to some reports they may be transferred to Mianwali jail today (Monday).

However, prominent journalist & Director HRCP I.A. Rehman and HRCP Secretary General, lawyer Iqbal Haider have been transferred to HRCP Chairperson Asma Jahangir's house (which has been declared a sub jail where Asma herself is under house arrest; see her arrest order here). Former finance minister and HRCP Council member Dr Mubashir Hasan, who is over 80, was allowed to go to his own house on the basis of his health (I guess you have to be 80 to be shown some mercy by this government).

Those arrested include: eminent journalist & editor of HRCP's Jehd-e-Haq newsletter Hussain Naqi, economist Shahid Hafeez Kardar, director of HRCP's vulnerable prisoners' project Brig (rted) Rao Abid Hameed, artists Salima Hashmi & Lala Rukh, educationist Samina Rehman,
prominent columnist Imtiaz Alam, secretary general South Asia Free Media Association (SAFMA), lawyer Bilal Minto, economist Ali Cheema, sociologist Rubina Saigol, Azra Shad, Khalid Mehmood, HRCP lawyer Mehboob Khan, and barrister Salman Raja.

Imran Khan picked up by agencies?

There is intense speculation about the whereabouts of Imran Khan. One rumor has him crossing the Wagah border into India early Monday morning. Another said that Imran Khan was going to surrender of his own accord sometime on Monday. According to his party's Chief Political Secretary however, he has been abducted by the intelligence agencies. Courtesy of an email received by a friend:

This is a message from the Chief Political Secretary of PTI Saifullah Khan Niazi. Imran Khan did not escape house arrest in Lahore as has been reported in electronic media, we are unsure of his whereabouts, and he has likely been kidnapped by the agencies:

“The Chairman Imran Khan was told by the police last night that he is under house arrest. But around 3 am the police brought warrants to take him to prison and at that time it was discovered that he had mysteriously vanished while there were over two dozen policemen surrounding his house. We are not sure where they have taken him as there is no way he could have gone out without the knowledge of the police and he could be in a lot of danger.

Please do note that none of the MMA, MQM, or PPP leaders have been arrested. Aitzaz Ahsan, a leader of the PPP, has been arrested but on the basis of his being president of the Supreme Court Bar Association, not his affiliation with the PPP. Meanwhile, Benazir remains in Karachi but is expected to go to Islamabad tomorrow.

Crackdown on protests

There's been a massive crackdown on protests today. Protests have been led by lawyers. In Karachi, there was an intense protest starting at 9:40 a.m. during which lawyers shut down the city courts, and the Karachi Bar Association president was arrested. Later in the day, in Karachi and Hyderabad, 200+ lawyers were lathi-charged and arrested. Lawyers are continuing their occupation of the courts.

The Sindh Chief Justice Sabihuddin Ahmed refused to take a fresh oath on Saturday. In his place, Justice Soomro was appointed. Local lawyers then sent around text messages saying "Sabihuddin is our chief justice." Justice Sabihuddin attempted to go to work as chief justice today, and has subsequently been placed under house arrest (his son, a lawyer, has also been arrested in the protests).

Protests occurred in the Lahore courts as well. Details aren't available yet but here's a pic:


A protest has been called at 4 p.m. today (Monday) at the Karachi Press Club. Massive show of military force and mass arrests are expected.

Despite this show of force, Musharraf hasn't been able to consolidate his latest coup. According to some reports, more than 50% of judges have refused to take a fresh oath under the new Provisional Constitutional Order (the one declaring martial law). So the tussle between Musharraf and the judiciary appears to be going in favor of the judges. The tv channels also remain off air, which suggests to me that Musharraf hasn't been able to fill the judiciary and bring the media under control. (A meeting with media owners is planned for tomorrow.)

Under these circumstances, I think it's likely that there will be a counter-coup. After all, the military isn't monolithic. There is a fundoo faction that is sympathetic to the Taliban and their ilk, and are unhappy with the War on Terror. But there is another faction as well which consists of the "professionals" - those who believe in the professionalism of the army and signed up to be soldiers, not politicians. This faction is the one that the U.S. has always depended on (it's the group Musharraf comes from as well), and this group is extremely unhappy with this latest imposition of martial law.

There are in fact rumors from Islamabad of a counter-coup. Stay tuned.

Sunday update

The most exciting news of the day is that Imran Khan has somehow managed to escape house arrest. It's not clear where he is but if he managed to get away even for a bit, that gives me so much joy! (I just hope he doesn't go and join Osama now.)

The most depressing news of the day is that there were mass arrests today, about 500 or so. The most high-profile ones were done during a raid on the HRCP office in Lahore, with the arrests of I.A. Rehman, Salima Hashmi, etc. There was also a raid on the Aaj TV office and equipment was damaged and removed, as was done at the FM103 station (this station provides hourly Urdu BBC News updates). There are rumors circulating that the internet is going to be cut off any minute now.

As expected, elections have been postponed but it's not clear until when. Shaukat Aziz said they could be delayed upto a year.

A meeting was called today at the Karachi Press Club, attended by about 100-150 people. Several people spoke movingly. Mention of lawyers and judges got HUGE applause. It's been decided to have a protest tomorrow(Monday) outside Karachi Press Club at 4 p.m., in support of the lawyers' strike nationwide. Below is a pic of the meeting.


I'm not sure how big the street actions are going to be. I see two problems. One, people are genuinely afraid, with good reason, of the army. No one supports this martial law at all (not even conservatives, corporate types, etc.). But the fear of being beaten up is very real now because Mush is pissed off and he's ready for a fight. Two, I think the really big numbers aren't going to come out unless the political parties (and by that I mean the PPP) get involved and mobilize their people. It is significant that Benazir announced today that she is going ahead with the Pindi rally on November 9.

In Karachi, army presence seems to be light, although we did see police and Rangers standing outside the Press Club:


I think we need a BIG push from the Pakistanis in the West. That would make a huge impact at this point. In Mush's speech, he made a big show of speaking to the expats directly. He needs their support, and he doesn't need the bad press. So please, if you're outside Pakistan, plan regular protests at Pakistani embassies, consulates, high commissions. There was a protest in NYC on Sunday, and there is one planned for Monday in London. You can see details here.

One more thing. PLEASE don't call this an "emergency." This is martial law, and it needs to be called martial law. The rhetoric of "emergency" allows Musharraf to make this seem as if this is a minor step that is being done for the good of the country or some genuine short-term crisis, when of course it's being done to keep him in power. By the way, one of the funny moments in his speech/tantrum last night was when he was criticizing the media. He noted that when he came in 1999, there was only PTV, and that he had brought so many new channels since then. The irony of course is that for the last one and half days, we are back to PTV only!

Blogging from Karachi

I'm in Karachi for a few months and had planned to set up a new blog, but haven't got around to doing it and figured I'd just report here about what's been happening in Pakistan in the last 24 hours. Musharraf has imposed martial law. He's calling it an emergency but it's martial law. The constitution has been suspended, major opposition figures are under arrest, elections have been called off, censorship laws have been put in place, and the judiciary is being gutted and replaced with compliant judges.

In his address last night, Mush said he had taken this act because he couldn't bear to see Pakistan commit suicide. Well, actually, it's Musharraf's actions that are suicidal, both at a personal and national level. He has most likely put Pakistan on the path to disintegration and chaos. He has definitely sealed his own fate and I expect he will be gone within 6 months (whether violently or not, I can't say).

This moment is akin to 1970, just before civil war broke out. The situation was different then in that it was a majority of the country that was being oppressed. But the similarity is that we have the military yet again using brute force and oppression as the key to solving political problems. With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that using even more force against then-East Pakistan was absolutely counter-productive and served only to hasten the pace of Bangladeshi independence. We can see today that sending in even more U.S. troops into Iraq is absolutely counter-productive and will never secure peace. Then why can't the idiots at GHQ see that what they have just signed on to is absolutely suicidal? Of course, I know why. It's because they are, above all else, power-hungry and desperate, and if things don't go exactly according to their plans, well then, it's time to get serious and impose martial law. Musharraf is like a petulant 5-year old boy who isn't winning the game so he takes his ball away and goes home. But in this case, he's set himself up for a fatal end.